The RTS Link Could Redirect RM3.3 Billion in Spending to Johor Bahru
New research models a dramatic shift in cross border retail flows once rail connectivity goes live.
Something is about to change in the economic relationship between Singapore and Johor Bahru, and the numbers suggest it will be significant. A new study projects that once the RTS Link opens, Singapore residents could inject an additional RM3.3 billion annually into JB’s retail and dining economy. That is not a small adjustment. That is a structural reallocation of how people spend money across the Causeway.
The findings, drawn from historical card transaction data and surveys conducted in March 2026 with approximately 1,700 Singapore respondents and 400 Johor respondents, paint a picture of modal shift triggering behavioural shift. When crossing the border becomes easier, people do not just cross more often. They cross differently. They spend differently. And where that money lands changes the commercial landscape on both sides.
Trip Frequency and the 51 Percent Jump
Outbound trips from Singapore to Johor Bahru are projected to rise 51 percent once the RTS Link becomes operational. For those currently relying on public transport or considering switching from private vehicles, overall trip frequency could climb as high as 70 percent.
Most of these trips, the data suggests, will remain day trips. Weekend shopping runs. Dinner across the border. A massage appointment that used to require battling Causeway traffic now becomes a train ride away.
The convenience factor cannot be overstated. Anyone who has sat in a bus queue at Woodlands on a Saturday morning understands the friction that currently suppresses spontaneous travel.
Remove that friction, and latent demand surfaces quickly.
Where the Money Goes
Cross border retail has always been shaped by exchange rate dynamics and pricing differentials. The ringgit’s relative weakness against the Singapore dollar makes JB attractive for everything from groceries to spa treatments to petrol. The RTS Link does not change that equation. It amplifies it.
The study models different spending patterns based on how people currently travel and how they intend to travel once rail connectivity arrives.
Public transport users expect to make more solo trips and dining focused visits to JB. Those switching from private vehicles anticipate more couple trips oriented around health and beauty services. Former drivers who plan to shift to the RTS Link show stronger intentions for overnight stays and entertainment spending.
These are not identical consumer profiles. A solo diner hopping across for laksa behaves differently from a couple booking a spa day. The commercial implications ripple outward into what kind of retail and F&B operations will thrive in an RTS adjacent economy.
Singapore’s Side of the Ledger
The spending flows are not entirely one directional. The same research forecasts incremental spending of approximately S$756 million, roughly RM2.4 billion, in Singapore from Johor residents taking advantage of improved connectivity.
Still, the net inflow favours Malaysia. The gap between RM3.3 billion heading south and RM2.4 billion heading north represents a meaningful shift in cross border retail economics. JB stands to capture spending that previously stayed in Singapore or never materialized because the trip felt too cumbersome.
The Caveats Worth Noting
These projections rest on transaction data modelling and survey responses collected before operational details are finalized. Actual outcomes will depend on fares, service frequency, exchange rate movements at the time of launch, and how pricing differentials evolve on both sides of the border.
The 51 percent jump in trip frequency assumes people follow through on stated plans. Real world adoption curves often look different once a service launches.
Survey respondents indicate intentions, not commitments. None of this invalidates the research. It contextualizes it. The direction of travel, so to speak, seems clear. The magnitude will sharpen once the RTS Link is running and actual transaction data replaces modelled projections.
What This Means for JB’s Commercial Landscape
Johor Bahru has been positioning itself as a cross border retail destination for years. Malls near the Causeway already cater to Singapore shoppers. But rail connectivity changes the catchment area and the customer profile.
Retailers and F&B operators in JB will likely see a shift toward higher frequency, lower friction visits. The customer who currently drives across once a month might train across twice a week. That changes what they buy, how much they spend per trip, and what kind of experience they seek.
Health and beauty services, dining, and entertainment appear well positioned based on projected behavioural shifts. Overnight stays represent a growth category for former drivers switching to rail.
The modal shift creates commercial opportunity. Operators who understand how train passengers shop and eat differently from drivers will capture more of the projected RM3.3 billion.
A New Chapter in an Old Relationship
Singapore and JB have always existed in economic symbiosis. The RTS Link does not create that relationship. It accelerates it.
For Singapore residents, the border becomes less of a barrier and more of a threshold. Cross it more often, spend more confidently, return home the same day without the exhaustion of traffic.
For Johor Bahru, the question becomes how to absorb and retain spending that arrives faster and more frequently than before. The infrastructure is coming. The commercial response will determine how much of that RM3.3 billion actually lands.
